NorCalPreps.com - NCP Pick'em Week 7

October 20, 2009

Douglas Benton
NorCalPreps.com Analyst

A tough slate of games with a number of upsets saw many of the scores drop this past week, but that didn't stop a perfect score from being posted. This week features a pair of games from the EBAL and the Delta River League as well as two games featuring match-ups of teams in the NCP Top 20. Will there be any upsets this week?

Friday

St. Mary's, Berkeley (5-1) at Encinal (5-1): This will likely be the final test for both teams in league play heading into the playoffs. St. Mary's has developed a nice core of offensive players in quarterback Francisco Torres, running back Demetrius Brown-Ryan and wide receiver Najee Lovett. The Panthers have won five in a row since being blown out in its opener to Heritage (38-6). St. Mary's has two close wins this year over Salesian and St. Patrick/St. Vincent, but this is clearly the best team it will play in the regular season. For Encinal, it comes in at 5-1 as well with its lone loss this season being at home to Serra (28-13). The Jets have a strong running game with quarterback Tyrone Duckett, Jonathan Allen and Jon Trodder. Duckett, a true running back, has struggled with his passing this year and completed less than 40% of his throws, but if he can have more games like he did against Swett (6-9-127 yards-3 touchdowns), this will be a tough team to beat.

Deer Valley (6-0) at Pittsburg (3-3): This game could very well decide the Bay Valley league as Deer Valley comes in unbeaten and Pittsburg looks to have bounced back after a convincing win over Heritage last week. For Deer Valley, it starts with the play of quarterback Kristoff Williams, who has provided a bona fide dual threat from the position. Damon Collins is also a player to look for as he is one of the top rushers for the Wolverines. On defense, Deer Valley is led by Garrett Ransom, who leads the team in tackles and sacks. The Wolverines beat James Logan and Washington of Fremont earlier in the year and appear ready to challenge Pittsburg for league supremacy. With Pittsburg, it has been an up and down year thus far, but it looks to be trending up after two straight wins. The Pirates appeared to have to found some answers this past week in scoring 46 points against Heritage. The key for this game, like it is for Pittsburg games the rest of the year is whether it can get balance with the passing from Julius Mozee and company and whether the defense can make Williams a pure passer.

Pleasant Grove (4-2) at Sheldon (5-1): Sheldon started the year 5-0, but saw its perfect record take a big blemish last week as it lost to Monterey Trail 44-0. The Huskies were averaging more than 30 points per game prior to the loss, but were held to less than 100 total yards against Monterey Trail. Through its early successes, Sheldon has done a good job running the football with Dewone Young and Raymond Dickerson and playing solid defense. They key for the Huskies will be stopping Pleasant Grove playmaker Jalen Saunders, who is a problem because of his speed and because he opens up plays for the Eagles' other skill players. Quarterback Taylor Congdon is having a solid season and Drew Ahmann has developed into a good No. 2 target. It is the defense though that could be the difference as Pleasant Grove has some athletes on that side of the ball, but have struggled some in its two losses. Whether or not Sheldon can run the football consistently and keep Saunders and company off of the field will be the key to the game.

Concord (5-1) at Clayton Valley (6-0): Clayton Valley made it to the section championship game a year ago and now sits at 6-0 this year with a big home game against Concord this week. The Eagles have been solid on defense by allowing just 13 points per game, though it hasn't faced top notch offenses. Jeremy McKillip leads the offense on the ground game and quarterback Tyler Fjelbo is making his share of plays at quarterback. At Concord, it is all about an offense which has lit up scoreboards since the opening week. The Minutemen are averaging more than 40 points behind junior quarterback Ricky Lloyd and running back Forrest Hightower . This game features a clear contrast in style, so whichever team can control the tempo of the game will win.

Rocklin (6-0) at Granite Bay (5-1): If starting the league season at Loomis wasn't tough enough, Granite Bay will come back home this week and welcome in No. 9 Rocklin and its 6-0 record. Granite Bay played well on Friday and had chances to win on the road against Del Oro. The running game is rolling right now, led by the play of Devaunte Bolton and his ability to impact the defense. One area of weakness for the Grizzlies is a lack of size on the defensive line, which has hurt them against the power running of Pittsburg and Del Oro. However, one thing the defense does well is it limits big plays and forces an offense to go the distance of the field. This will be especially key against Rocklin, which boasts an excellent group of skill players in running back Jackson Cummings, quarterback Jimmy Laughrea and wide receiver Holden Huff. The defense though has given up at least 30 points in three of the six games this year and will have to deal with the well-tuned attack of Granite Bay. Rocklin's defense will need to match stops in the second half if they want to move to 7-0.

California (4-2) at Amador Valley (5-1): The EBAL was considered a fairly wide open league after the top two teams heading into the season. Well, two teams which have made their cases are California and Amador Valley. The Cal Grizzlies are starting to round into form and have its top playmaker back in Reggie Davis, who had 11 carries in the win over Granada last week. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler has been one of the top surprises at the position in the area. The defense has played very well in league play and shut down San Ramon Valley and the running game of Granada. Amador Valley is coming off of a big win over Monte Vista and its lone loss this season is a loss at De La Salle, where they had a lead at halftime. Quarterback Kean Stancil is a solid dual threat player and Dalton Turay comes in as the team's leading rusher. The big question is how Amador Valley will handle playing after success and with expectations following the Monte Vista win.

Hilmar (6-0) at Central Catholic (5-1): This is a rematch of last year's SJS Division V section championship game, which was won by Hilmar 17-6. The Yellowjackets come into this year's game No. 4 in the Division III bowl rankings. The defense has played well for Hilmar by not allowing more than 17 points in any game this season, while the offense has developed a good balance. Quarterback Quinton McCown can make plays down field and the running game of Carlos Diaz and Issac Diaz has made a good duo. This will prove to be a test for the Central Catholic defense, which has played very well this year outside of a poor performance against St. Mary's of Stockton. The Raiders also have good balance on offense with the passing game of Dylan Swartz and the running game by committee led by Steel Rocha. Based on the system they both play, whichever team can make bigger plays on offense and not have to go on long drives against solid defenses will probably win.

Foothill, Pleasanton (4-2) at Monte Vista (4-2): This is a national televised game featuring two quarterbacks headed to the Pac-10. Foothill has lost two of its last three games and in both losses; it has given up 69 total points. Quarterback Sean Mannion has played well this season, but it hasn't been enough in two close losses. The Falcons now travel to Danville to take on Monte Vista, who has lost two in a row by a total of 10 points. The run defense of the Mustangs has been a problem the last two weeks, which in turn limits the time its offense can be on the field. With two good offenses, it will come down to which defense can stop the run and make the opposing offense one dimensional. Neither offense is as explosive when it can't get the running game going.

Monterey Trail (5-1) at Folsom (6-0): Monterey Trail has won five in a row, including a resounding a 44-0 win over Sheldon last week. In the win over Sheldon, Drake Tofi ran for 123 yards and a touchdown and Mike Calvan threw three touchdowns as the defense pitched its third straight shutout and fourth of the season. This streak will be tested against a Folsom team which boasts one of the most explosive offenses in Northern California. It has scored at least 41 points in all six games this year, including 55 points against Casa Roble and 54 against Oak Ridge. The offense is led by quarterback Dano Graves and his top targets, Kori Babineaux and Tyler Trosin. Defense has always been the question for Folsom, but it has shown improvements this season. This is a big test defensively for Monterey Trail, who can't afford to let this game become a shootout.

Mitty (6-0) at Bellarmine Prep (5-1) Game of the Week: In a battle of unbeatens from the WCAL, Mitty will look to continue its comeback from a 1-9 season a year ago. The Monarchs have shown a balanced offensive attack behind the running game of Rocky Mezsaros, Joey Walker and D.J. Bush to go with the developing passing game under junior Kyle Boehm. The defense has played well and shown the potential to be a very good defense. It will have to deal with a Bellarmine running game which is getting better every week. The combination of Kyle Olugbode and Kris Olugbode has proved to be very good and quarterback Mike McGovern is settling into the position nicely. It has played one top flight offense this year in St. Mary's of Stockton and struggled against its speed though. This should be a classic, WCAL low scoring game.

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